The Atlantic could be in for more storms than weather forecasters predicted in May. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the season could go from near-normal to above-normal.

“It’s the water temperatures,” said Meteorologist  Andrew Tingler. “I just looked at the Sabine Pass gauge (at the Texas/Louisiana border in Cameron parish) and the water temperature is 90 degrees. That could be a problem, especially if the wind shear dies off.”

NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.

NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season, according to Thursday’s NOAA report.