Published 6:00 pm Wednesday, May 16, 2018
For today’s stupid column stunt, we will try something truly breathtaking, possibly unprecedented, probably dangerous.
Get some popcorn.
But, OK, believe it or not, heading into the last week of the college baseball regular season I can whip you up a scenario in which, for all its travails and ups and occasional meltdowns this season, the LSU baseball team still wins the SEC West Division.
Don’t believe me?
Oh, ye of little faith.
Well, just hold my beer and watch this …
Its not very complicated, actually.
It’s also not very doable, but you can’t have everything. There really aren’t that many moving parts to it, nor does it involve, say, the Mississippi River reversing course.
First of all, LSU (which is 14-13 in conference) has to sweep its three-game series at Auburn — key word being “at” since the Tigers have not won an SEC series “at” anywhere this season and only three total conference games “at” an opponent’s home field.
Long shot, sure. But you with me so far?
OK, some of it is out of LSU’s control.
Next among the needed dominoes would be SEC West leader Arkansas (17-10) to get swept at Georgia (16-11). Sweeping anything is hard in the SEC, but stranger things have happened.
LSU did take two of three from the Hogs, so the Tigers would have the tiebreaker in that tie at 17-13.
Oh, but there’s more, and this is the one you really need to be sitting for.
And pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.
Ole Miss, the second-place team in the West at 16-11, would have to get swept at … Alabama (the only team that, at 7-20, has been eliminated from the SEC tournament).
Keep in mind, last weekend the Tigers spared no hijinks in doing just about everything they could possibly do to get swept by Bama … and still took two of three from the Tide.
But, yes, I’m saying there’s a chance. Or at least the math works, if not the common sense.
It’s been two days now since the Supreme Court legalized sports gambling and the SEC still has not installed para mutual windows in its dugouts, so it’s hard to tell. But the odds of all that coming together must be astronomical.
But enough fantasy. Let’s touch base with reality.
This matters this year more than most for LSU because the Tigers are walking on egg shells as it concerns their chances to get into the NCAA Tournament.
More than likely the discussion won’t be settled this weekend, but will be continued with next week’s SEC Tournament.
The latest projections, by D1Baseball.com (which usually isn’t too far off), have LSU as a No. 3 seed in the Tallahassee Regional.
That’s as of Tuesday.
And it also has the Tigers listed as one of the “Last Five In,” along with Louisiana Tech, Illinois, Washington and Mississippi State.
State (28-24, 12-15 SEC) is two games behind LSU in the conference standings and has won three fewer games overall, but its RPI
(35) is well ahead of the Tigers at No. 49.
Supposedly conference performance doesn’t count for much with the NCAA selection committee, which insists it looks only at the overall body of work.
But as of now those projections have 11 SEC schools getting bids, almost twice the six bids of the next best, the ACC. Four of them — Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Georgia — would make up exactly half of the eight national seeds.
So it couldn’t hurt to finish as high in the conference as possible.
LSU head coach Paul Mainieri knows from (bitter) experience.
The last time LSU was left home from the NCAA Tournament was 2011. The Tigers’ overall record (36-20) wasn’t probably worthy of getting in. But they were 13-17 in the SEC that year.
“We have to win at least one game to get to 15 (SEC wins),” Mainieri said. “Most SEC teams that are 15-15 get into the NCAA Tournament. Certainly I don’t think there’s ever been a 16-win SEC team that didn’t get in the NCAA Tournament.”
Just winning the series would offset, to a degree, those lack of road wins, maybe the biggest mark against LSU. The Tigers won all five home SEC series.
“If we can win a series at Auburn, we’ll win six of 10 for the year, plus that would give us 16 wins in the conference.”
If not, LSU has kind of owned the SEC Tournament recently, winning three of the last five and making the finals and semifinals the other two years.
But you wouldn’t want to have to make a desperate deep run in it with a pitching staff this thin.
That would take a real leap of faith.
Scooter Hobbs covers LSU athletics. Email him at shobbs@americanpress.com
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