LSU’ record would be better if …
Published 3:30 pm Thursday, November 26, 2020
Scooter Hobbs
This is always dangerous, sometimes detached from reality.
But just for fun, play along here for a minute.
Most everybody would agree right now that LSU’s season is, if not an unmitigated disaster, then certainly not worth the wait and the anxiety over whether college football would even be played.
As letdowns following national championships go, it’s bordering on historically ugly.
But let’s wander off into la-la land for a moment. Suppose that we massage just two of the losses just a tad.
Start at the beginning.
Thanks to the coronavirus-related season delays, LSU had longer to celebrate a national championship than any team on record — and maybe the rudest awakening once defense of it started.
Mississippi State 44, LSU 34.
It was immediately proclaimed the worst defensive game plan ever conceived — and football scientists still scratch their heads wondering what defensive coordinator Bo Pelini was thinking with tight, bump-and-run coverage for the entire game against a gimmick offense that screams for you just to keep everybody in front of you.
It even shocked new Bulldogs Mike Leach, who nevertheless kept throwing over LSU’s heads right up until the game-clincher.
Even if an LSU epiphany hadn’t happened until halftime, there’s probably a pretty good chance LSU wins that game.
Since then only Vanderbilt has found a way to lose to Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs, who supposedly announced Leach’s silly offense with such authority that day, have been averaging a mere 13 points per game since leaving Baton Rouge.
I would presume LSU would come up a different defensive plan given a do-over, likely with a different result.
That’s one game.
Now …
OK, there’s a couple of ways to rearrange the inexplicable loss at Missouri.
You probably don’t even have to move it back to Baton Rouge, where it was scheduled before Hurricane Delta dropped by.
You can still let stand the blocked field goal that the Tigers suffered. It was unfortunate, and would have allowed the Tigers to kick a chip-shot field goal for the win at the end. But it’s part of the game. Opponents are allowed to make plays, too.
But, still, as badly as it played, at the end, trailing by four, LSU had first-and-goal from the 1-yard line to win the game.
Four chances. One yard.
And the Tigers lined up in the shotgun.
So, in reality, as the crow flies, it was first-and-goal from the 6-yard line.
It did not turn out well.
Never mind that Missouri had lost a few starters to its interior defense.
At least LSU learned its lesson from that one.
In ultra-short yardage situations since, it turns out they do know how to take a direct snap from center.
With the Auburn game, sorry, I can’t help you.
There may be a way to gerrymander a game from 48-11 and get it straight into the win column, but such a vast array of ifs and buts is well beyond my pay grade.
Mark that one off to a bad day at the office.
At least the Tigers got back home in time for the Halloween parties.
But, still, with just minor, commonsense tweaking of two of the three LSU losses, I’m able to serve you up what would be a 5-1 season right now.
Really, just two very questionable coaching decisions is all it took.
At 5-1, LSU has the same record as Texas A&M, the Tigers’ opponent this week — with the Aggies very much in the discussion for the College Football Playoff, coming in at No. 5 in the first edition released Tuesday night.
At 5-1 things would look a lot different.
It’s certainly wouldn’t resemble anything like last year’s dream season any more than the depth chart would.
Still, at 5-1 LSU fans would have a whole different outlook about what is going down.
It would seem like a minor hiccup, maybe, with a ridiculously inexperienced team, before surely rejoining the CFP discussion next season.
That’s just the way it works. It’s all about the Ws.
But at 5-1 it would a whole different perception of what’s going on and Bring on Bama.
Agreed?
OK.
But here’s the big question: As easy as it would be to tweak things to get to 5-1, would the Tigers really be any better of a football team right now?
Probably not. It might even be fool’s gold.
Keep in mind, they are 3-3 and have not played a ranked team yet — Auburn is ranked now, but wasn’t until after embarrassing LSU.
For that matter, if not for two of the most egregious officiating calls of the season, I can get you from Auburn at 5-2 to Auburn at 3-4 a whole lot easier than I just got LSU to 5-1.
Combined, the record of LSU’s opponents is 15-28.
That’s a delicate way to say that the softer side of the schedule is over for the Tigers.
The remaining four games — assuming that the Alabama visit gets rescheduled (and it will) — LSU will face four teams with a combined record of 21-6, three of them in the top six of the CFP rankings.
The reality check? Getting from 3-3 to finish the regular season 5-5 will be a lot tougher than that fantasy trip to 5-1.
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Scooter Hobbs covers LSU athletics. Email him at shobbs@americanpress.com
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