Jim Beam column:Can Trump win midterms?
Published 6:07 am Wednesday, February 18, 2026
President Donald Trump definitely wants Republicans to maintain control of Congress at the Nov. 3 midterm elections. He has had Texas and other GOP states working to create new Republican seats in Congress to make it happen.
The Associated Press said people close to Trump say he is eager to help Republicans so his political agenda isn’t stymied. Democratic victories derailed his first term agenda after the 2018 midterms. He has helped the GOP build a sizable cash advantage over Democrats ahead of this November, at least so far.
Trump also has a political war chest exceeding $1.5 billion, which The AP says is “a staggering sum that he can wield at his whim to shape November’s midterms and the 2028 race to succeed him.”
However, The AP said Trump has been reluctant to spend money on other people’s races in the past, and he’s even found ways to funnel some cash to his own businesses.
The president has a history of not spending big on races where he isn’t running. In 2018, Trump’s super PAC spent less than $30 million. — a pittance given that super PACs spent about $820 million that cycle, according to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan group that tracks political spending.
Trump is also facing a major problem. An Aug. 28, 2025, analysis by William A. Galston for the Brookings Institution, a prominent, nonpartisan American think tank, indicates money might not help Trump this Nov. 3.
“The president’s party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections, as has happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938,” the analysis said. “Both exceptions reflected unusual circumstances.”
The Galston analysis said the two midterm exceptions occurred in 1998 after Republicans tried but failed to impeach President Bill Clinton and remove him from office, even though 66% of the people approved of his job performance.
The other exception came after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, after which public approval of President George W. Bush soared and stood at 63% on Election Day of 2002.
Galston added another problem that Trump is facing, at least for now, when he said, “The president’s job approval has a strong impact on the outcome of midterm House elections.” The Economist said 392 days into Trump’s term his approval rating is 38% approve, 56% disapprove and 6% not sure.
“As we have seen, there is no modern precedent for the president’s party to avoid losses in the House unless the president’s job approval is well above 50%. By this measure Trump has a long way to go,” the Brookings analysis said.
In the 2018 U.S. midterm elections during Trump’s first term, the Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives (235-199), gaining a net of 40-41 seats and ending eight years of Republican control. The Republican Party maintained and expanded its majority in the Senate.
The Republican Party ended unified Democratic control of Congress in the 2022 midterms when President Joe Biden was in the White House by winning a majority in the House while Democrats expanded their Senate majority.
Galston said, “In 2022, anger at the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade helped Democrats mute the effects of inflation and keep their seat loss in the House to single digits, despite predictions of a “red wave.”
It was different two years later, he said, when Democrat Kamala Harris lost because of her emphasis on abortion rights.
Galston in his analysis said the odds that public sentiment will shift enough this November to extend Republicans’ control of the House seems low.
“If Republicans lost control of either chamber in 2026,” Galston said, “the legislative phase of Trump’s presidency would end (unless he and the Democratic opposition pivoted toward an unlikely bipartisanship), and a stream of oversight hearings would put his administration on the defensive.”
The Brookings analysis said, “The 2026 midterms will have important consequences for the remaining two years of Trump’s presidency. But whatever happens this November, the 2028 presidential election will begin in earnest the very next day, and it will be a whole new ball game.
The AP said that Trump’s campaign bank account would let him play a decisive role in the next presidential race. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are the early favorites.
OK, but let’s get through the midterm elections first.
Jim Beam, the retired editor of the American Press, has covered people and politics for more than six decades. Contact him at jim.beam.press@gmail.com.
