Federal Reserve cuts key rate, sees healthier economy next year
Published 5:31 pm Wednesday, December 10, 2025
The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by a quarter-point for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months.
The cut decreased the Fed’s rate to about 3.6%, the lowest it has been in nearly three years. Lower rates from the Fed can bring down borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards over time, though market forces can also affect those rates.
Chair Jerome Powell suggested at a news conference that after six rate cuts in the past two years, the central bank can step back and see how hiring and inflation develop. In a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.
Fed officials “will carefully evaluate the incoming data,” Powell said, adding that the Fed is “well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.”
The chair also said that the Fed’s key rate was close to a level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy, a significant shift from earlier this year, when he described the rate as high enough to slow the economy and quell inflation. With rates closer to a more neutral level, the bar for further rate cuts is likely higher that it was this fall.
“We believe the labor market will have to noticeably weaken to warrant another rate cut soon,” Ryan Sweet, global chief economist at Oxford Economics, said.
Three Fed officials dissented from the move, the most dissents in six years and a sign of deep divisions on a committee that traditionally works by consensus. Two officials voted to keep the Fed’s rate unchanged: Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed. Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed in September, voted for a half point cut.
December’s meeting could usher in a more contentious period for the Fed. Officials are split between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who’d prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Unless inflation shows clear signs of coming fully under control, or unemployment worsens, those divisions will likely remain.
“What you see is some people feel we should stop here and we’re in the right place and should wait, and some people think we should cut more next year,” Powell said.
A stark sign of the Fed’s divisions was the wide range of cuts that the 19 members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee penciled in for 2026. Seven projected no cuts next year, while eight forecast that the central bank would implement two or more reductions. Four supported just one. Only 12 out of 19 members vote on rate decisions.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday criticized the cut as too small, and said he would have preferred “at least double.” Trump could name a new Fed chair as soon as later this month to replace Powell when his term ends in May.
Stocks jumped in response to the Fed’s move, in part because some Wall Street investors expected Powell to be more forceful in shutting down the possibility of future cuts. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose 0.7% and closed near an all-time high reached in October.
Powell was also optimistic about the economy’s growth next year, and said that consumer spending remains resilient while companies are still investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
He also suggested growing worker efficiency could contribute to faster growth without more inflation.
Still, Powell said the committee reduced borrowing costs out of concern that the job market is even weaker than it appears. While government data shows that the economy has added just 40,000 jobs a month since April, Powell said that figure could be revised lower by as much as 60,000, which would mean employers have actually been shedding an average of 20,000 jobs a month since the spring.
“It’s a labor market that seems to have significant downside risks,” Powell told reporters. “People care about that. That’s their jobs.”
