Even with the outcome uncertain Tuesday night, the 2024 presidential election already has exposed the depths of a fractured nation as the candidates navigated political shifts based on class, race and age under the near-constant threat of misinformation and violence.

Early data suggests that Republican Donald Trump may benefit from some of the shifts more than Democrat Kamala Harris. And the Republican former president may have also benefited from frustrated voters’ focus on the economy.

The biggest conclusions from the election so far, however, may be the most obvious.

The United States is poised to elect either its first female president in Harris or its first president with a felony conviction in former president Trump.

Black voters — men and women — have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party, and Democrats have had a strong pull for Latino voters. It’s been the same with young voters.

But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 115,000 voters nationwide, suggested that the groups shifted in Trump’s direction.

Voters under age 30 represent a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. That’s compared to the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020.

Slightly more than 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about one-third in 2020.

Another shift that emerged was among Black and Latino voters, who appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to back Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.

About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among those groups appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020.

Trump boasted throughout the fall that he would get more support from Black men and Latino men than he had before.

Harris, meanwhile, went after more educated voters — including moderate Republicans — repelled by Trump.

It may turn out that the Trump era is not a permanent realignment of the major party coalitions. But it’s clear that old coalitions and longstanding understandings of how to win the White House simply do not apply with Trump in the mix.