A mighty Hurricane Milton flung rain and gusty winds at the Tampa Bay area Wednesday on its steady and potentially catastrophic march toward the west coast of Florida, where officials sounded urgent warnings for residents to evacuate or face grim odds of survival.

The National Hurricane Center stressed that it was not certain exactly where Milton’s center would come ashore Wednesday night because the storm’s path might “wobble,” but that the entire Tampa Bay region and points south were at grave risk. Tropical storm-force winds were just off the coast around midday, the center said.

“This is it, folks,” said Cathie Perkins, emergency management director in Pinellas County, which sits on the peninsula that forms Tampa Bay. “Those of you who were punched during Hurricane Helene, this is going to be a knockout. You need to get out, and you need to get out now.”

Milton has fluctuated in intensity as it approaches Florida but was a strong Category 4 hurricane at midday Wednesday and was expected to remain a major storm when its center hits land and then plow across the center of the state, forecasters said. Tampa Bay, near the top of a long stretch of coastline that could be in the bull’s-eye, has not taken a direct hit from a major hurricane in more than a century.

Residents should not feel relief because of indications Milton’s center might come ashore south of Tampa, Perkins said: “Everybody in Tampa Bay should assume we are going to be ground zero.”

Milton targets communities still reeling two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded streets and homes in western Florida along its devastating march that left at least 230 dead across the South. In many places along the coast, municipalities raced to collect and dispose of debris before Milton’s winds and storm surge — projected to reach as high as 12 feet (3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) farther south, between Sarasota and Fort Myers — could toss it around and compound any damage.

“Chaos and heartbreak,” Mary Ann Fairman said when asked about the coming days. Fairman, 84, was among roughly 1,000 people at a shelter in West Bradenton. She stayed home during Helene but packed up blankets, snacks and toiletries and left this time.

“The Gulf is practically in our backyard,” she said.

In Pasco County, home to over half a million people in bedroom communities for Tampa and St. Petersburg, officials said shortly before noon that they were getting ready to take buses off the road.

“This is your last chance if you need to get to a shelter,” they said in a statement. “After that, you’ll need to find a way to the shelter or be prepared to ride out the storm.”

The famous Sunshine Skyway Bridge, which spans the mouth of Tampa Bay, closed around midday. Other major bridges closed, as well.

At a news conference in Tallahassee, Gov. Ron DeSantis described deployment of a wide range of resources, including 9,000 National Guard members from Florida and other states; over 50,000 utility workers from as far as California; and highway patrol cars with sirens to escort gasoline tankers to replenish supplies so people could fill up their tanks before evacuating.

“Unfortunately, there will be fatalities; I don’t think there’s any way around that,” DeSantis said.

Milton was centered about 160 miles (260 kilometers) southwest of Tampa at midday Wednesday and had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 kph), the hurricane center reported. It was moving northeast at 17 mph (28 kph) and was expected to make landfall Wednesday night, then remain a hurricane as it crosses Florida — including the heavily populated Orlando area — through Thursday.

“Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to stay inside and away from windows,” the center said in a 1 p.m. advisory.

Heavy rain and tornadoes lashed parts of southern Florida starting Wednesday morning, with conditions deteriorating. Six to 12 inches (15 to 31 centimeters) of rain, with up to 18 inches (46 centimeters) in some places, was expected well inland, bringing the risk of catastrophic flooding.

One tornado touched down Wednesday morning in the lightly populated Everglades and crossed Interstate 75. Another apparent tornado touched down in Fort Myers, snapping tree limbs and tearing a gas station’s canopy to shreds.

Authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders across 11 Florida counties with a population of about 5.9 million people. Officials warned that anyone staying behind must fend for themselves, with first responders not expected to risk their lives attempting rescues at the height of the storm.

St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch told residents Wednesday to expect long power outages and the possible shutdown of its sewer system.

“We have a long road ahead of us, but we will recover and we will rebuild,” Welch said. “But for the next several hours, our focus is to keep everyone safe, and we can do that.”

In Charlotte Harbor, and about 100 miles (160 kilometers) south of Tampa, clouds swirled and winds gusted as Josh Parks packed his Kia sedan with clothes and other belongings. Two weeks ago, Helene’s surge brought about 5 feet of water to the neighborhood, and its streets remain filled with waterlogged furniture, torn-out drywall and other debris.

Parks, an auto technician, planned to flee to his daughter’s home inland and said his roommate already left.

“I told her to pack like you aren’t coming back,” he said.

In the Tampa Bay area’s Gulfport, Christian Burke and his mother stayed put in their three-story concrete home overlooking the bay. Burke said his father designed this home with a Category 5 in mind — and now they’re going to test it.

As a passing police vehicle blared encouragement to evacuate, Burke acknowledged staying isn’t a good idea but said he’s “not laughing at this storm one bit” — he just believes the house his father built will withstand it.

Some 1,700 people hunkered down at Gibbs High School in St. Petersburg, including Trokon Nagbe and his husband, Morris Kulp. They slept on the floor because they didn’t bring their own cots.

“It’s not the Hilton or the Marriott,” Kulp said, “but it sure is appreciated.”